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Why Parishes Shouldn’t Treat Data as a Four-Letter Word

How to gather pertinent information before launching programs or making large changes

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Data-driven news stories are a fact of life in 21st-century America, ranging from the newest health advice (which can contradict what was given just last month) to the latest trends in baby names in 2019. These stories also can range from truly insightful to very misleading.

A common news story today portrays the Catholic Church as an institution in serious decline. A story might cite statistics about parish closings, Catholics not believing in the Real Presence in the Eucharist and young adults and teens abandoning the Church in droves.

Presenting data is itself not the problem. Whether it is national trends or results from your parish’s informal survey, data needs context to be properly understood. The national trends presented below, for example, will surprise many readers. The trends have applications for not just dioceses, but for the parish in which you may serve.

Context Matters

In our contemporary data-driven society, it is important to remind ourselves that data always exists within a context. If we don’t pay attention to the context, the data by itself may lead us to the wrong conclusions.

Consider these statistics, all of which are accurate even if seemingly contradictory:

Between 2007 and 2014, Pew Research Center reports that Catholics went from 24 percent of the U.S. population to 21 percent, and Protestants overall went from 52 percent to 47 percent; during the same period, those unaffiliated with a religion rose 16 percent to 23 percent.

The number of parishes reported by U.S. dioceses and eparchies has decreased from almost 19,000 in 2005 to just over 17,000 in 2015.

U.S. dioceses and eparchies report that, between 2005 to 2015, the number of parish-connected Catholics rose from 64.8 million to 68.1 million, a 3.3 million increase.

What context can help us interpret and understand such trends? CARA (Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate, the Catholic research center where the authors labor) and other researchers note two great contextual trends during the past few decades: (1) a great number of parish closings have been occurring in the Northeast and Midwest regions of the country while many new parishes are opening in the South and West, and (2) urban parish attendance has shrunk while suburban parish attendance has swelled.

To add some heft to these trends, consider these diocesan statistics in different regions:

Between 2008 to 2018 the Archdiocese of Detroit reported 332,000 fewer Catholics, Chicago 161,000 fewer Catholics, and Pittsburgh 115,000 fewer Catholics.

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Measuring the Pulse of a Parish

Parish priests do not exactly live in a bubble, it’s true, but sometimes such a bubble exists when they try to measure the pulse of their parish. They frequently talk with those who come to daily Masses. Such parishioners are often the backbone of a parish and pastors are used to relying on them for helping with the work of the parish and spreading the word about upcoming parish functions. But relying on these active persons to take the pulse of the parish is often a mistake. Their needs and opinions and those of the people who sit in the back of the church on Sunday mornings do not always coincide.

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At the same time, the Diocese of Fresno reported an increase of 882,000 Catholics, the Archdiocese of Galveston-Houston 705,000 more Catholics, and the Archdiocese of Atlanta 500,000 more Catholics.

Does this mean that Catholics in the Northeast and Midwest and those in large cities have lost the Faith while numerous people are becoming newly religious in the South and West and suburbs? Or that parishes in the Northeast, Midwest and large cities are ineffective while those in the South, West and suburbs have discovered some new extraordinary way of evangelizing?

No, it does not. The parish closings and openings and the numbers identifying as Catholic are driven by people on the move. There is a Catholic population bust or boom depending where you are in the country. Parishes close because people have moved — either from the city to the suburbs or from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt. In addition, those Catholics who have immigrated to the United States in recent decades from Latin America, Southeast Asia and Africa are also moving to where the jobs are — in the Sun Belt.

A good and effective priest in the Rust Belt can labor long and hard year after year in a parish and be discouraged by declining numbers and struggling finances, while a good and effective priest in the Sun Belt is simultaneously experiencing standing-room-only Sunday Masses and a perpetually inadequate parking lot.

So dioceses and parishes in the Rust Belt should not, necessarily, be brow-beating themselves about what they are doing wrong. And as a corollary, dioceses and parishes in the Sun Belt should not necessarily be giving themselves a great big pat on the back. Catholic leaders in both of those regions need to view themselves and their actions through the lenses of these larger societal trends.

Applying These Lessons

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Dioceses are already used to collecting, analyzing and using data. When a community of believers approaches a diocese about opening another parish, for example, dioceses regularly look to the trends within their diocese, including where the population within its boundaries is shrinking or growing, the ethnic and language groups moving into the diocese, and the number of priests who will be available to help lead parishes in 10 years. CARA knows that dioceses use such numbers regularly, as it has helped them collect such data over many decades. It can help make difficult decisions about issues such as how best to cluster parishes within a deanery.

Parishes, on the other hand, are more of a mixed bag when it comes to leaders collecting and using data to help make sound decisions. Some, like one of the largest parishes in the United States, St. Matthew Church in Charlotte, North Carolina, regularly conduct surveys of their members (more than 10,000 registered families) to gauge their parishioners’ needs and how well the parish is meeting those needs. Others collect very little data beyond their October Mass counts and the number of sacraments celebrated at their parish annually.

Just like those in larger organizations, parish leaders often need data to help guide decision-making. Those that do not have such data are often those wondering later, for example, why the fundraiser for the newly remodeled apse has stalled at a level that makes proceeding with it a risky enterprise: People were asking for it, so why aren’t the funds showing up as expected?

Collecting Good Data

A good first step for collecting pertinent data is to think about what units you need it from. If it is a household pledge program you are looking for, then a questionnaire for each registered household is likely the best place to send the survey.

If it’s a question about music style preference though, just hearing from the head of a household that includes a spouse, young adults and teens can be a mistake. Hearing from everyone attending all liturgies on a weekend might be the group you need to hear from.

Once you’ve figured out who to survey, you need to figure out what meaningful subgroups deserve comparison. For our music at Masses example, that might mean collecting opinions about music but also asking about their ages and the Mass they currently attend. Recognizing likely variations such as those among various age groups of parishioners and those who congregate at different Masses adds some of the context already present at your parish.

Why so? Understanding what kinds of music young adults prefer vs. that preferred by middle-age parishioners and senior citizens can have repercussions. Maybe the music doesn’t have to be the same at the teen Mass. Perhaps those who regularly attend the 7:30 a.m. Sunday Mass prefer not having any music while those at the 10 a.m. Mass prefer more contemporary music. Comparing subgroups of parishioners allows you to avoid designing a one-size-fits-all kind of music program.

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Read more

For more help in understanding the context of modern-day parishes, Father Thomas Gaunt, SJ, and Dr. Jonathan Wiggins helped write “Catholic Parishes of the 21st Century” (Oxford University Press, $24.95).

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Following this example, the next step might be to distribute and collect a short survey during Mass with 10 questions, eight of which are straightforward questions about music style preferences and the other two asking for their ages and the Mass they most regularly attend.

Why a survey during Mass, you may ask? Why not one over coffee and donuts after each Mass? The authors have found that the more active parishioners are the ones who attend such functions, putting you right back to where you started when just asking your weekday Mass attendees for their opinions — only hearing from those whose opinions you already know best.

In the End

Whether your question is about a household-pledge program, the music at Masses, or the Real Presence in the Eucharist, there is informative data you can collect in your parish before launching any programs or making any large changes. Data that is asked of the appropriate audience and with an understanding of the context in which you are operating can really help you make better decisions that have a greater chance of success. 

FATHER THOMAS P. GAUNT, SJ, is the executive director of the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (CARA), and DR. JONATHON WIGGINS is director of CARA Parish Surveys.

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Meeting your research needs

CARA can help parishes, dioceses, religious institutes and others with surveys, focus groups, interviews, demographics, mapping, planning studies, trend analysis, projections and forecasting, program reviews, market research, data collection and database creation and maintenance, archival research, and pre-test/post-test experiments. Contact CARA at cara@georgetown.edu or by calling (202) 687-8080.

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